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Objective

Americans are encouraged to eat more fruits and vegetables as part of a healthy, balanced diet. However, meeting increased demand for these highly nutritious foods will be challenging for domestic production regions in the United States. These supply chains are undergoing significant innovation and transformation as a result of multiple drivers including: consumer preference for fresh produce grown locally; climate change and increased competition for natural resources; cost and availability of labor; efforts to improve sustainability profiles; and the rise of protected and peri-urban production.

Using an integrated, collaborative approach, a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional team co-led by the ILSI Research Foundation and the University of Florida will help the US maintain a nutritious, reliable, affordable, and environmentally-sound food supply.

Collaborators & Partners

USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, University of Florida, International Food Policy Research Institute, University of Arkansas, University of Illinois, World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, and Washington State University

Current Work

In 2017, the ILSI Research Foundation and the University of Florida were awarded a $3 million, four-year grant from the United States Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture (USDA NIFA) for the project “Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Opportunities”.

The goals of the project are to: 

  • Enhance the productivity, resilience, and sustainability of domestic produce supply chains
  • Use integrated (crop, economic, and environmental) modeling to identify and test adaptation & mitigation strategies for these systems

The project team includes scientists, extension specialists, practitioners, and students from the ILSI Research Foundation (ILSI RF), University of Florida (UF), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas (UARK), University of Illinois (UIUC), Washington State University (WSU), and World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES).

The focus of the team is on strategies and land use change resulting from innovation in domestic produce supply changes. 

Crop modeling, economic modeling, and environmental modeling will be used to determine current and future climate and water availability impacts on yield, quality, price, and environmental profile of selected fruit and vegetable crops.

Crop Modeling

UF, WSU, and UIUC will determine current and future climate and water availability impacts on yield and quality of selected fruit and vegetable crops in current and potential future production states

Economic Modeling

IFPRI and WAEES will determine current and future prices and production costs of selected fruit and vegetable crops, with a focus on California, the Pacific Northwest, and Southeast

Life Cycle Assessment Modeling

UARK will identify and evaluate cost-effective adaptation and mitigation opportunities

Stakeholders & Extension

ILSI RF, UF, and WSU will engage stakeholders and decision makers to ensure models reflect realistic practices and that outputs provide useful, actionable information

Crops

8 crops were selected based on importance to nutrition as well as data and model availability:
potatoes, tomatoes, sweet corn, green beans, strawberries, oranges, carrots, and spinach.

Resources

Protocol

The project's Protocol for US Fruit & Vegetable Crop Modeling

Postcard

A brochure about the project

Poster

A bird's-eye view of the project

Factsheet

A summary of the project's recent activities

Filter

Mechanistic Crop Modeling and Life-Cycle Assessment Modeling Workshops

Gainesville, FL, USA

Two workshops for the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains project were held at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Workshop participants included scientists and extension specialists from the ILSI Research Foundation, University of Florida, University of Arkansas, Washington State University, and the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services.

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									Overview			
					
					
				Overview
							

The vast majority of Americans now live their lives almost entirely detached from agriculture and the realities of food production, rendering them increasingly susceptible to urban folklore and myths about so-called "sustainable food." Fruits and vegetables are an important class of foods for which an entire mythology around sustainability has developed. Organized by the Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Opportunities project, this breakout session at the Sustainable Agriculture Summit addressed many of those myths through a creative presentation of the findings generated by a highly interdisciplinary research team, which is now two years into a four-year effort.

Description

Americans are encouraged to eat more fruit and vegetables as part of a balanced diet, and they have come to accept as true many tenuous precepts about the sustainability of fruit and vegetable food systems (e.g., local means more sustainable, water use is high and getting worse, organic is healthier, etc.). Another assertion often heard is that both climate change and decreased availability of irrigation water will make it increasingly difficult to meet future fruit and vegetable demand. However, industry stakeholders report that relatively minor management practice changes have so far been sufficient to adapt to these challenges. These same stakeholders report that the significant innovation and transformation of fruit and vegetable supply chains now underway is actually dominated by primarily socioeconomic considerations: consumer preference for fresh produce grown locally, increased competition for natural resources, cost and availability of labor, efforts to improve sustainability profiles, and the rise of protected and peri-urban production.

But what about the future?

Our highly interdisciplinary research team is now two years into a first-ever four-year, USDA NIFA-funded effort to explore climate adaptation and mitigation opportunities in U.S. fruit and vegetable supply chains, through the application of a novel integrated modeling framework that includes crop, economic, and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models. During this breakout session at the Sustainable Agriculture Summit, we employed a creative approach, in which we first presented and then "busted" a series of "myths" about the sustainability of fruit and vegetable supply chains.

Learning Objectives
  1. Upon completion, participants were able to articulate and utilize accurate information concerning the factors (primarily socioeconomic in nature) that are most responsible for ongoing changes in fruit and vegetable supply chains.
  2. Upon completion, participants were able to respond in a fully-informed manner to how continuing changes in climate patterns and irrigation water availability are expected to impact fruit and vegetable supply chains.
  3. Upon completion, participants were able to pursue opportunities for expansion of domestic fruit and vegetable production in areas with high yields and favorable sustainability profiles.
  4. Upon completion, participants were able to address the fruit and vegetable supply chain steps having the largest impact on overall environmental footprints (land, water, and GHGs).

Speakers

Dr. Dave Gustafson,
ILSI Research Foundation
Expand

Dr. Dave Gustafson is an independent scientist who uses modeling to help food systems meet human nutrition needs in more sustainable ways. His academic training was in chemical engineering (Stanford, B.S., 1980; University of Washington, Ph.D., 1983). He worked for 30 years in private industry (Shell, Rhône-Poulenc, and Monsanto), and then served at the ILSI Research Foundation as Director of the Center for Integrated Modeling of Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition Security (CIMSANS) through 2016. Dave’s early career focused on predicting agricultural impacts on water quality. He subsequently developed new modeling approaches to pollen-mediated gene flow and the population genetics of insect and weed resistance. Beginning in 2007, Dave began leading efforts to understand climate adaptation and mitigation imperatives in the global agri-food system. He has served on various national and international teams looking at this issue, including the Executive Secretariat of the US Government’s National Climate Assessment Development & Advisory Committee (2011-2014).

Dr. Kaiyu Guan,
University of Illinois
Expand

Dr. Kaiyu Guan is an Assistant Professor in ecohydrology and geoinformatics in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), with a joint appointment as a Blue Waters professor affiliated with the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA). Before joining UIUC, he was a post-doctoral scholar working with Prof. David Lobell in the Center of Food Security and the Environment and Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, where he researched climate change impacts and adaptations on crop production and food security in West Africa and the United States. He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University, where he studied how hydrological variability impacts vegetation dynamics (vegetation phenology, ecosystem productivity, and biome distributions) in the African continent using multiple remote sensing datasets and ecosystem/land surface models (e.g. SEIB and VIC).

Dr. Greg Thoma,
University of Arkansas
Expand

Dr. Greg Thoma served as director for research and is currently senior advisor to The Sustainability Consortium, a joint effort of the University of Arkansas and Arizona State University, with a membership of over 90 national and multinational corporations, governmental organizations, and NGOs. The Consortium is focused on measuring and improving the sustainability of consumer goods, including food. He has represented the Sustainability Consortium on the United Nations Environment Program/Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Lifecycle Initiative board of directors, assisting in coordination of international efforts to mainstream life cycle management in the consumer goods sector. He has been on the faculty at the University of Arkansas since receiving his Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering in 1994 from Louisiana State University and is a Registered Professional Engineer in the state of Arkansas. He has held the Ray C. Adam Chair in Chemical Engineering and is currently the Bates Teaching Professor in Chemical Engineering.

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By Invitation Only

About Agenda Photos About

The 3rd Annual Workshop for the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains project took place at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign on July 10-11, 2019. Workshop participants included scientists and extension specialists from the University of Florida, ILSI Research Foundation, Washington State University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, University of Illinois, and World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES).

Co-led by the University of Florida and ILSI Research Foundation, the multi-organization team was awarded a four-year grant by the United States Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture (USDA/NIFA) in 2017. The team uses various forms of modeling to study US fruit and vegetable supply chains, with a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation opportunities.

Learn more about the project here!

Agenda

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Integrated Paper Update
Dr. Greg Thoma, University of Arkansas
Dr. Dave Gustafson, ILSI Research Foundation Downscaling of Future Irrigation Water Availability
Dr. Kirti Rajagopalan, Washington State University
Dr. Marty Matlock, University of Arkansas Updates from the Extension Teams
Dr. Kirti Rajagopalan, Washington State University
Dr. Clyde Fraisse, University of Florida Economic and Land Use Change Modeling Update
Dr. John Kruse, World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services
Dr. Pon Intarapapong, World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services Advisory Committee Teleconference
All Guided Tour of FACE Field Site
Dr. Don Ort, University of Illinois

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Updates from the Crop Modeling Teams
Dr. Kaiyu Guan, University of Illinois
Dr. Claudio Stöckle, Washington State University
Dr. Senthold Asseng, University of Florida Hydrology Modeling Update
Dr. Kirti Rajagopalan, Washington State University
Dr. Claudio Stöckle, Washington State University
Life-Cycle Assessment Modeling Update
Dr. Greg Thoma, University of Arkansas
Dr. Ranjan Parajuli, University of Arkansas Stakeholder Engagement Update
Dr. Dave Gustafson, ILSI Research and Foundation Current/Future IMPACT Model Development Plans of Potential Relevance to the Project
Mr. Tim Sulser, IFPRI
Dr. Ricky Robertson, IFPRI Publication Strategy
Dr. Senthold Asseng, University of Florida
Dr. Dave Gustafson, ILSI Research Foundation Project Evaluation 
Dr. Senthold Asseng, University of Florida
Dr. Dave Gustafson, ILSI Research Foundation Proposal Strategies 
Dr. Senthold Asseng, University of Florida Project Schedule and Additional Crops
Dr. Senthold Asseng, University of Florida
Dr. Dave Gustafson, ILSI Research Foundation Action Items, Assignments, and Due Dates
Ms. Layla Tarar, ILSI Research Foundation Photos

Participants from the Project

Senthold

Dr. Senthold Asseng

University of Florida

Clyde

Dr. Clyde Fraisse

University of Florida

Kaiyu

Dr. Kaiyu Guan

University of Illinois

Dave Gustafson

Dr. Dave Gustafson

ILSI Research Foundation

Gerrit Hoogenboom (UFL)

Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom

University of Florida

John

Dr. John Kruse

WAEES

Marty

Dr. Marty Matlock

University of Arkansas

Staff_Mclean_updated

Dr. Morven McLean

ILSI Research Foundation

Ranjan Parajuli

Dr. Ranjan Parajuli

University of Arkansas

Kirti

Dr. Kirti Rajagopalan

Washington State University

Ricky

Dr. Ricky Robertson

IFPRI

Washington State University

Dr. Claudio Stöckle

Washington State University

Tim_edited

Mr. Tim Sulser

IFPRI

ILSI Research Foundation Staff Layla Tarar

Ms. Layla Tarar

ILSI Research Foundation

Greg

Dr. Greg Thoma

University of Arkansas

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The 2nd Annual Workshop for the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains project was held at the Clore Center in Prosser, Washington. Workshop participants included scientists and extension specialists from the University of Florida, ILSI Research Foundation, Washington State University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, University of Illinois, and World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES).

Co-led by the University of Florida and ILSI Research Foundation, the multi-organization team was awarded a four-year grant by the United States Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture (USDA/NIFA) last year. The team will be using various forms of modeling to study US fruit and vegetable supply chains, with a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation opportunities.

Agenda

Monday, June 23, 2018

Pre-Meeting on Life Cycle Assessment Modeling with Washington State University Extension Personnel
Session Lead(s): Mr. Chad Kruger and Ms. Kirti Rajagopalan

Tour of Hartley Produce's Packing Facility and Nearby Fields
Session Lead(s): Mr. Chad Kruger and Ms. Kirti Rajagopalan

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Crop Modeling Update on Year 1 Crops
Session Lead(s): Dr. Senthold Asseng and Dr. Claudio Stöckle

Discussion about the CO2 Fertilization Effect
Session Lead(s): Mr. Tim Sulser and Dr. Claudio Stöckle

First Annual Report to NIFA
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson

Communications Overview
Session Lead(s): Ms. Layla Tarar 

Integrated Scientific Publication Strategy
Session Lead(s): Dr. Morven McLean

Plan for Integrated Modeling of Year 1 Crops
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson, Dr. John Kruse, Dr. Greg Thoma, Mr. Tim Sulser

Proposed Strategy for Crop Modeling of Year 2 Crops
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson and Dr. Senthold Asseng

Review of Outcomes from the Pre-Meeting
Session Lead(s): Mr. Chad Kruger and Ms. Kirti Rajagopalan

University of Florida Extension Updates and New Stakeholder Engagement Opportunities
Session Lead(s): Dr. Kati Migliaccio

Discussions about Expanding the Current Project and Preview of the AGCI Workshop
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Brief Introductions with Representatives from the Washington State Wine Commission
Session Lead(s): Mr. Chad Kruger

Project Overview
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson and Dr. Senthold Asseng

Overview of Current Washington State Wine Commission Research Priorities
Session Lead(s): Mr. Rick Hamman

Discussion of Possible Areas for Future Collaboration
Session Lead(s): Mr. Chad Kruger 

Vineyard Tour with an Emphasis on Resource Use Efficiency
Session Lead(s): Mr. Kevin Corliss

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Preferred Source(s) of County-Level Water Availability Data
Session Lead(s): Dr. Greg Thoma, Dr. Ranjan Parajuli, Dr. John Kruse, and Mr. Tim Sulser

Project Assessment and Action Items
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson and Dr. Senthold Asseng

Advisory Committee and Stakeholder Engagement Opportunities
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson

Washington State University Extension Updates
Session Lead(s): Ms. Kirti Rajagopalan

Project Timeline and Crop Prioritization
Session Lead(s): Dr. Dave Gustafson and Dr. Senthold Asseng

Integrated Paper Working Session
Session Lead(s): Dr. Greg Thoma

Participants from the Project

Senthold

Dr. Senthold Asseng

University of Florida

Dave Gustafson

Dr. Dave Gustafson

ILSI Research Foundation

Gerrit Hoogenboom (UFL)

Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom

University of Florida

Tina

Ms. Tina Karimi

Washington State University

Chad

Mr. Chad Kruger

Washington State University

John

Dr. John Kruse

WAEES

Staff_Mclean_updated

Dr. Morven McLean

ILSI Research Foundation

Kati

Dr. Kati Migliaccio

University of Florida

Ranjan Parajuli

Dr. Ranjan Parajuli

University of Arkansas

Kirti

Ms. Kirti Rajagopalan

Washington State University

Washington State University

Dr. Claudio Stöckle

Washington State University

Tim_edited

Mr. Tim Sulser

IFPRI

ILSI Research Foundation Staff Layla Tarar

Ms. Layla Tarar

ILSI Research Foundation

Greg

Dr. Greg Thoma

University of Arkansas

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Two workshops for the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chains project were held at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Workshop participants included scientists and extension specialists from the ILSI Research Foundation, University of Florida, University of Arkansas, Washington State University, and World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services.

Overview

February 21: Integration of Mechanistic Crop & LCA Modeling

One of the project's unique aspects is the integration of mechanistic crop modeling with life-cycle assessment (LCA) modeling. This day-long workshop provided an opportunity for participants from both the mechanistic crop modeling and LCA modeling teams to identify and harmonize specific data items across the models. Action items that required post workshop follow-up were identified, and a summary of workshop outcomes was prepared and shared with the full project team.

February 22: Identification of Data Sources for LCA Modeling

The development of comprehensive LCA models across entire supply chains for the project’s target crops (potatoes, tomatoes, oranges, green beans, strawberries, sweet corn, carrots, and spinach) is essential to the project. This required the identification of data sources describing all key processes throughout the various supply chains. This day-long workshop provided an opportunity for the LCA modeling team to meet with supply chain experts in person. In addition to identifying necessary data sources, other beneficial outcomes included: (1) creating broad regional awareness about the project; (2) receiving broad stakeholder input; (3) connecting with other researchers already conducting relevant work on this topic; and (4) establishing a regional stakeholder community for future engagement.

Agenda

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Overview of LCA Modeling and Data Needs from Mechanistic Crop Models
Presenters: Dr. Greg Thoma and Dr. Ranjan Parajuli

Overview of Mechanistic Crop Modeling and Outputs
Presenter: Dr. Claudio Stöckle

Overview of Mechanistic Crop Modeling and Outputs
Presenters: Dr. Senthold Asseng, Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom, and Dr. Chuang Zhao

Discussion Session: Units

Discussion Session: Can LCA Modeling Outputs be used by Mechanistic Crop Models?

Discussion Session: Next Steps

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Overview of Project
Presenter: Dr. Dave Gustafson

Presentations: Position, Background, and Expertise with Project Crops
Presenters: Extension Specialists and Unit Administrators invited by the Extension Team

General Overview of LCA Modeling and Data Needs for Crop Models
Presenters: Dr. Greg Thoma and Dr. Ranjan Parajuli

Discussion Session: How to Obtain Necessary Data
Discussion Leaders: Dr. Greg Thoma and Dr. Ranjan Parajuli

Hands-on Session: Data Transfer into LCA models

Discussion Session: Next Steps

Participants from the Project

Senthold

Dr. Senthold Asseng

University of Florida, Gainesville

Dave Gustafson

Dr. Dave Gustafson

ILSI Research Foundation

Gerrit Hoogenboom (UFL)

Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom

University of Florida, Gainesville

John

Dr. John Kruse

World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services

Kati

Dr. Kati Migliaccio

University of Florida, Gainesville

Ranjan Parajuli

Dr. Ranjan Parajuli

University of Arkansas

Washington State University

Dr. Claudio Stöckle

Washington State University

Greg

Dr. Greg Thoma

University of Arkansas

Chuang Zhao

Dr. Chuang Zhao

University of Florida, Gainesville

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Excessive Rainfall Leads to Maize Yield Loss of a Comparable Magnitude to Extreme Drought in the United States

Y. Li, K. Guan, G. Schnitkey, E.H. DeLucia, & B. Peng
2019, Global Change Biology
The results of this study highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.
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Toward Building a Transparent Statistical Model for Improving Crop Yield Prediction: Modeling Rainfed Corn in the U.S.

Yan Li et al.
2019, Field Crops Research
The statistical model presented in this study provides a benchmark for further development and can be applied to future research related to yield prediction or assessment of climate change impact.
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A SIMPLE Crop Model

Chuang Zhao et al.
2019, European Journal of Agronomy
The goal of this study was to develop a simple generic crop model (SIMPLE) that could be easily modified for any crop to simulate development, crop growth and yield.
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Environmental Sustainability of Fruit and Vegetable Production Supply Chains in the Face of Climate Change: A Review

Ranjan Parajuli, GregThoma, and Marty D.Matlock
2019, Science of the Total Environment
This study discusses importance of assessing environmental sustainability of fruits and vegetable (F&V) production sector in future climate change (CC) scenarios.
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Protocol for US Fruit and Vegetable Crop Modeling

Chuang Zhao et al.
2018, ILSI Research Foundation
The goal of this protocol is to assess the climate change impact on fruit and vegetable production and potential adaptations, including possible shifts in production area in the United States.
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